Looking into the future of Renewable Energy: using foresight study with surprising results

I just read an article from the Energy Division of the Prime Minister's office of Brunei Darussalam where the government is now considering 'alternative energy' to substitute their energy resource in the future.

This is a quite surprising news for me, since as far as I understand, the government of Brunei insists on the use of fossil based fuel, specifically natural gas and oil as their only energy sources.

But this also should not make me surprise. The country has experienced oil production decline in the 1990s. Now with the volatility of fossil fuel price, there is no guarantee for the country to sell their resources abroad except for domestic use.

This is also stated in the country's wawasan 2035 vision, where oil and gas alone can't fuel growth.

What makes it more interesting is result of the energy types to be chosen. The study examines seven energy types consisting bioenergy, hydroelectricity, hydrogen, nuclear, ocean, solar and wind. However only three, bioenergy, hydrogen and ocean, that were suggested. Except for bioenergy, hydrogen and ocean are rarely discussed on the renewable energy potential.

This gives us some lesson learn that in the study of future (foresight or some kind), the result sometimes differs from the mainstream. As for the Brunei case, the criteria might be similar, but when assessing on the local settings, the result diverges from what the general pattern would suggest.